Henry Sherrell gives an in depth look at what fantasy basketball owners can expect from Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo.  Henry was recently featured on Ball Don't Lie
Make sure to check out FourPointPlay where you can get great fantasy basketball tips on all NBA teams along with a look at other Grizzlies' players.

The Grizzlies aren't the most talented NBA team kicking around, but this season they are going to be one of the best for fantasy basketball nerds to over analyse during the off season and groan over come November. All five of the presumptive starters, together with a wildcard coming off the pine, will have fantasy value this year. This includes the good, such as Rudy Gay's membership of the 1-1-1 club, and the bad, which would be anything Zach Randolph related but specifically his love of the three point shot. Whatever happens, because many of their players will be on fantasy teams in your leagues, lets take a more in-depth look at two of the probable higher picks, Rudy Gay and O.J Mayo. 


Rudy Gay 


Rudy Gay, a 3rd year player out of UConn, has been the go-to-man in Memphis for the past two years, and is earmarked as a potential star of the NBA.  Unfortunately, playing for a team as unsightly as the Grizzlies doesn’t get you a lot attention and Gay perhaps does not get the recognition he deserves. Rudy enjoyed a break out season in 07-08, averaging 20 points, 6.2 rebounds, and an amazing 1.7 threes, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks.  As such, he was drafted rather early by most fantasy coaches last season.   


Unfortunately, 08-09 was not as kind to Rudy and his numbers slipped across the board despite playing the same amount of minutes (37mpg).  Although he still produced some pretty good numbers (18.9ppg, 5.5rpg) and just narrowly missed out on the 1-1-1 club (by 0.2 blocks), I’m sure most were expecting the kind of improvement usually associated with young, up and coming stars (a la Kevin Durant).  But here’s the good part, because of his slightly lackluster season last year, Gay should slip under most people’s radar in this year’s draft, allowing you to sweep up one of the NBA’s most exciting young talents.  Let me explain.  


From a fantasy perspective, Rudy is the kind of player that I love.  He’s a small forward who not only scores, but also grabs you a steal and a block a game.  When your fantasy team gets blocks and steals from a number of sources rather than just a Dwight or a CP3, it makes your team much more well rounded on a week-to-week basis.  Or if you’re lucky enough to already have a stealing or blocking monster (or both, a la J-Smoove) your team verges on becoming unbeatable in that category.  So while Rudy may have been slightly down on these numbers last season, I believe that he will once again grace the 1-1-1 club (perhaps he’ll take Francisco Garcia’s seat). 


Furthermore, the guy has numerous fantasy benefits besides his raw stats.  Firstly, he’s as sturdy as they come, missing only 8 games in the past three seasons.  There’s nothing more frustrating than having an injured fantasy superstar on your bench and getting beaten every week, knowing you can’t drop him.  Secondly, as the main offensive weapon in Memphis, Gay is going to get big time minutes every night.  I mean who wouldn’t get 37 minutes a game when your second-string SF is Sam Young, come on.    


However, the main reason that I’m getting genuinely excited about Rudy Gay this season is the fact that he has packed on a whopping 20 pounds of lean muscle during the off-season.  And while he wasn’t smashing cartons of raw eggs, Rudy was working on his ball handling skills and back to the basket play.  To me, that means only one thing: Rudy is getting himself a post-game, nice.  This will no doubt turn him into a defender’s nightmare as he can still drive or shoot past bigger small forwards, and can now post-up smaller SF’s. That means higher percentage shots, more free-throw attempts and more points, which means more fantasy wins for you and me.  Everyone’s happy.  So while there shouldn’t be any questions as to whether Rudy Gay should be getting the ball on the majority of the Grizzlies’ possessions, this may not be the case.   


Rudy Gay plays alongside a player who took more shots than any other rookie last year, more shots even than Rudy Gay himself.  O.J Mayo.  And to compound this problem, Memphis have added notorious black hole, Zach Randolph to the mix.  Unfortunately for a player trying to make his mark on the league, Gay is now going to have to fight for his shooting opportunities and may have to strip the ball from Z-Bo if he’s going to get his 16 shots a game.  If the Grizzlies can make Randolph understand that he is not a reincarnation of Ray Allen (unlikely), and make sure that Rudy is the center-point of their offense, Gay should come good on his ‘superstar in the making’ potential.      


So although everything is in place to stunt the growth of Rudy Gay this season, mainly Zach Randolph, I expect him to assert himself as a fantasy stud this year.  Most fantasy rankings have Gay in about the 4th round, which I think is about right, but if you’re willing to take a chance on him finally arriving on the scene in a very Durant way, consider taking him in the 3rd.  I mean, he’s only 23 and has definitely not reached his ceiling yet.  Also, Gay will be a free agent in the summer of 2010 and will want to boost his market value this season.  If he busts, expect no less than the numbers he was producing last season.  But if he does indeed bring it in 09-10, expect 20+ points, 48%FG, 6 rebounds, 5 or 6 FT attempts, and VIP membership to the 1-1-1 club.   
 


O.J. Mayo 


Apart from a funky first name, Ovinton J'Anthony (O.J.) Mayo has the package of goods to be a fantasy machine come 2009-10. Drafted at number three in the 2008 draft, Mayo exploded onto the scene with a November to remember in 2008. In 15 games he knocked down 23 points at 48%, along with over two three-pointers, 5 boards, 2 assists and over a steal per game. Chuck in his ridiculous free throw percentage and the kid looked like he was rookie of the year in waiting. Unfortunately for Mayo and the Grizz, this production took a serious hit throughout the rest of the season and he ended up with 18/4/3 with 1.8 treys and a steal per. This is still a very solid rookie season. Grizzly fans will quickly point out this is a young team which is still learning the ropes and how to gel. This is true. With that in mind, lets look ahead for what season 2009-10 holds in store for Mayo as the Grizzles young players look to fulfill their potential and what impact roster changes will have on his game.  


For a start, you don't have to worry about his minutes. Mayo is going to be a rock for this franchise at the two spot for awhile. The one thing you do have to worry about if you take him in the draft is his field goal percentage and the impact of his teammates will have on his production this season. 


Picking the right shot is hard for any NBA player, except the all conquering shooting guard. Any shot will do. Mayo fancies himself as one of the purest two's out there and will jack up the ball as soon as it hits his hands or try to create his own offense leading to another attempt. At 15.6 field goal attempts per game, Mayo had the most shots attempted of any rookie in the last five years apart from Kevin Durant. This is quite amazing given that Rudy Gay is also on the team. Mayo needs to learn how Conley gets him the ball in conjunction with the space of the court. Not any shot will do, especially when you only shoot 43% from the field and when you play the most minutes during the season of any player. In 2009-10, you can expect this field goal percentage to trend upwards or Mayo won't be getting his hands on the rock like last season. He has shown that he can shoot well with those early November numbers but this needs to translate into long term vision. As a projected mid 4th round pick, you should want at least 45% on over 15 attempts give this is a shooting guards bread and butter. This would be nice, but I can't see it happening this season. The reason? Zach Randolph.  


Rudy Gay and Mayo combined for over 35 attempts per game last season, easily leading the Grizzles. Randolph's history is littered with an amazing number of field goal attempts. Over 7100 in fact. In six of the last seven seasons, he has demanded over 16 per game. Greedy little boy. This is the sole reason why Mayo's number will decrease. It's not a good reason, because the Grizzles should be focusing on the development of their young core but it's still going to happen.  


So, final predictions for Mayo. If he goes as projected in many drafts in the 4th or 5th round, you will want at least 20/4/3 with over two threes and a steal. I'm not that high this season, even with a jump from his rookie season. I'd take in the 6th and expect 17/3/3, 44% field goal percentage, with a slight increase in free throw attempts and maybe an uptick in steals. Not bad for a developing shooting guard stuck on a mediocre team but not 4th round material.  


We want to thank the guys from FourPointPlay for taking the time to do this post.